Pandemic Flu
January/February 2006

“If left unchallenged, this virus could become the first pandemic of the 21st century. We must not allow that to happen…It is essential we work together, and as we do so, we will fulfill a moral duty to protect our citizens, and heal the sick, and comfort the afflicted.” -President George W. Bush, September 14, 2005

In the last century, the United States and the worldhave been hit by three influenza pandemics and viruses from birds contributed to all of them (www.whitehouse.gov).

1918 influenza pandemic caused at least 500,000 U.S. deaths and up to 40 million deaths worldwide.

1957 influenza pandemic caused at least 70,000 U.S. deaths and 1-2 million deaths worldwide.

1968 influenza pandemic caused about 34,000 U.S. deaths and 700,000 deaths worldwide (www.hhs.gov).

In 1997, the first recorded outbreak among people took place in Hong Kong. Avian flu struck again in late 2003 and has infected over 120 people in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Indonesia and killed more than 60 at 50 percent mortality rate (www.whitehouse.gov).

Three conditions must be met for a pandemic to start:

  1. a new influenza virus subtype must emerge;
  2. it must infect humans and causes serious illness; and
  3. it must spread easily and sustainedly (continue without interruption) among humans.

The H5N1 (Avian flu) virus in Asia and Europe meets the first two conditions: it is a new virus for humans (H5N1 viruses have never circulated widely among people), and it has infected more than 100 humans, killing over half of them.

However, the third condition, the establishment of efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus, has not occurred (www.cdc.gov).

Pandemic Influenza Plan (11/02/05) The U.S. Dept. of Health & Human Services has released its Pandemic Influenza Plan, as well as guidance documents for state and local partners, on its official Web site for information on pandemic flu and avian influenza.